Wednesday AM Blog: Thunderstorms, cooler temps and your long range forecast

Good Wednesday morning.  I hope your week is going great.  Mine has been pretty good.  I am coming off a 4 day weekend that I stayed home and just got stuff done that needs to get done.  My to do list was overwhelming.  Lets just say I didn’t get everything done.  But I did get a good chunk of it done so I was satisfied.  So back to work.  Check out the radar below.


These storms continue to die out to the west, but I do think we will have some scattered thundershowers around during the morning on the KS and OK side.

We will have some clouds and break out and see highs into the mid 80s.  So actually a little cooler.  Additional afternoon thunderstorms will develop around 3pm.

Now some of these could be strong and even low grade severe.  If we would have any severe storms, it would be for large hail, but I will watch it. Most of these will be out by the mid evening hours.  Let me show you why.

You can see the upper level map and see the storm system in Nebraska.  This is dropping SE and it gives us those rain chances.  Remember, with the Heady  Pattern we have a 47 day cycle.  So lets go back 47 days, to May 4th.

Here is that same system.  Now when it passed through we were still warm but cooler than what we have been.  The next three days will be warm but much cooler than we have been.  Take a look at my long range forecast below.  So many interesting things are about to happen.  I will talk about this in upcoming blogs.


Here is your 7-day forecast:

Lets check out the Heady Pattern and your long range forecast.

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July


Next Week:  The first half of the week mainly dry with temperatures back into the 90s.  We will stay hot till Friday then back down into the 80s heading into the weekend.  We will have thunderstorms chances on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. Lets go 1’s on Friday and Saturday.

July 1st-7th:  Hot all week with pop up storms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, then again on Friday and Saturday.  Severe weather index:  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s through the period.

July 8th-14th:  Hot through Wednesday, but warm temperatures return for Thursday through Saturday.  A few thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Wednesday and Thursday.

July 15th-21st:  Hot most of the week with thunderstorms chances on Monday and Tuesday, then Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s the days with thunderstorms.

July 22nd-28th:  Another hot week with pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s thunderstorm days.

July 29th-August 5th:  Mainly a hot week with highs in the 90s or 100s.  Slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday the 5th.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1 on Saturday.




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