2:45 pm Update on Storms

Good Wednesday afternoon.  Thunderstorms working through.  Here is an update on what to expect.

Why are we getting the storms?

You can see the upper level map and see the storm system in Nebraska.  This is dropping SE and it gives us those rain chances.  Remember, with the Heady  Pattern we have a 47 day cycle.  So lets go back 47 days, to May 4th.

Here is that same system.  Now when it passed through we were still warm but cooler than what we have been.  The next three days will be warm but much cooler than we have been.  Take a look at my long range forecast below.  So many interesting things are about to happen.  I will talk about this in upcoming blogs.

Doug

Here is your 7-day forecast:

Lets check out the Heady Pattern and your long range forecast.

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  The first half of the week mainly dry with temperatures back into the 90s.  We will stay hot till Friday then back down into the 80s heading into the weekend.  We will have thunderstorms chances on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. Lets go 1’s on Friday and Saturday.

July 1st-7th:  Hot all week with pop up storms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, then again on Friday and Saturday.  Severe weather index:  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s through the period.

July 8th-14th:  Hot through Wednesday, but warm temperatures return for Thursday through Saturday.  A few thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Wednesday and Thursday.

July 15th-21st:  Hot most of the week with thunderstorms chances on Monday and Tuesday, then Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s the days with thunderstorms.

July 22nd-28th:  Another hot week with pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s thunderstorm days.

July 29th-August 5th:  Mainly a hot week with highs in the 90s or 100s.  Slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday the 5th.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1 on Saturday.

Doug

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dheady@koamtv.com

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