Thursday Morning Blog: Oh My The Heat! However, changes, your long range forecast

Good Thursday morning!  I hope your week is going great.  Mine has been fantastic.  My son before bed said I can’t believe Halloween is in 4 months.  I just looked and glared and rolled my eyes.  I said son, you have zero clue how fast life picks up as you get into high school, college, 20s, 30s.  Enjoy the moment and the summer.  However, it is flying by, lol.  Can you believe it is the middle of June.  We have been in this summer part of the pattern since late April.  To bad we didn’t have a spring.  Well I take that back, we had 6 days in the 70s, that is crazy.  Well now it is dry, hot humid.  Take a look at the radar below.

As our upper level high pushes in, the heat gets worse.  Ugh look at today.

It isn’t just the temperatures, the humidity is high.  I expect the heat index to be around 104 this afternoon.  That is dangerous heat, drink fluids and the pets also like water.  We will see some changes next week.

Our  upper high retreats just a big back to the west.  Remember this is right on track with the Heady Pattern and we will see a much pattern here in two months.  That is for later blogs though.  However, we will get a weak wave to rotate over the high and give us chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms.

I will keep you updated on all of this.  Your long range forecast is below.


Here is your 7-day forecast:

Lets check out the Heady Pattern and your long range forecast.

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July


Next Week:   A warm start to the week with hot temperatures returning for the weekend.  When I say warm, I am talking about 80s.  Thunderstorm chances increasing through the first half of the week.  Warm temperatures stick around through the week.  Severe weather index:  1’s on Sunday and Monday, 2’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

June 24th-30th:  A few scattered thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  The rest of the week should be dry.  A warm start to the week with hot temperatures returning the second half of the week.  Severe weather index:  1’s on Sunday and Tuesday, a 2 on Monday

July 1st-7th:  Hot all week with pop-up storms each day.  Severe weather index:  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s through the period.

July 8th-14th:  Hot through Wednesday, but warm temperatures return for Thursday through Saturday.  A few thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Wednesday and Thursday.

July 15th-21st:  Hot most of the week with thunderstorms chances on Monday and Tuesday, then Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s the days with thunderstorms.

July 22nd-28th:  Another hot week with pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s thunderstorm days.




Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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