Tuesday AM Blog: Rain chances! Long range forecast

Good Tuesday morning!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine is great!  I only work two days this week and going to relax.  Thunderstorms will be scattered through the morning hours.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the day.  Take a look at the radar below.

By early afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will push east.

Additional thunderstorms will pop up late afternoon.

As the front pushes through, most of the thunderstorms on Wednesday will be south of the region. However, I think we will still have pop-up storms in our southern counties.  Check out my long range forecast below and have a great Tuesday.

Doug

 

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A hot start to the week with 90s on Sunday and Monday.  Plus, the humidity will be on the high side.  Thunderstorms on Tuesday with a cold front sliding through.  80s for a couple of days before the 90s return late in the week.  Very slight chance for an isolated storm on Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2 on Tuesday.

August 19th-25th:  Mainly a hot week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday, and then again on Saturday. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s each day.

August 26th-September 1st:    Another hot week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday, then again on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on the thundestorm days.

September 2nd-8th:  Mainly a warm week with mild temperatures briefly mid week.  Thunderstorm chances Sunday through Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s thunderstorm days.

September 9th- 16th:  A hot start to the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Then again on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s each day.

September 17th-22nd:  Mainly a warm week with mild temperatures working in by the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances from Thursday through Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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