Friday Night Blog: The weekend is looking up! Long range forecast HP (Heady Pattern)

This pic above I took on a 10 mile hike deep into the Grand Tetons.  When we entered the trail there was a sign that said bears have been active and watch out for an aggressive moose, hmm.  However, we survived.  It was an amazing road trip.  We tracked up through South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming through Yellowstone and the Grand Teton.  Then tracked back through Colorado and of course western KS.  The weather was so amazing!  I did see everyone back here at home was baking in the heat.


Any thunderstorms for most of the weekend will stay south of the area.

At least the weekend is looking great!

The humidity will be much lower which is a huge plus.  Much of the same on Sunday with an isolated pop-up afternoon storm.  However, the heat kicks back in next week.  Check out these stats.

56 of the past 67 days have been above normal.

26 days so far have been in the 90s, last year at this time we were at 7.

When you have a summer with a lot of humidity, it is hard to climb above 100 degrees.  However, if you have a summer with low humidity, you will get several days above 100.  I think the summers with higher humidity feel worse with heat indices around 110.


Here is your 7-day forecast:

I will take the long range HP (Heady Pattern) out through the rest of the summer over the weekend or on Monday.  So many things are getting very interesting with the pattern.  The new cycle is forming right now!  I will fill you in on this with my next blog.  It is getting super exciting!!!! well for me.


Lets check out the Heady Pattern and your long range forecast.

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July


Next Week:  Heat and the humidity sneak back in through the week.  We will have a few isolated thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

July 15th-21st:  Cooler temperatures working in, well lets call it warm and not the extreme heat with a storm system on Sunday and Monday with showers and thunderstorms.  The heat will return for the weekend with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Sunday, Monday, Friday and Saturday.

July 22nd-28th:  Mainly a hot week with highs well into the 90s if not triple digits.  Pop-up isolated storms Monday through Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s thunderstorm days.

July 29th-August 5th:  Mainly a hot week with highs in the 90s or 100s.  Slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday the 5th.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1 on Saturday.




Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

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