Wednesday AM Blog: Gets active!!!

 

Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great!  Mine has been pretty good.  It is a little hot for my taste in fall but not bad.  I so much I need to do today before work.  My German Shepherds underground fence has snapped somewhere.  Ugh, where is the question when you have an acre.  So I am just going to lay a new one, lol.  At least the weather will be good, hot but good.  Take a look at the changes though.  Here is rain potential over the next week.

Today will be dry, but we are going to do some flirting with the hot temperatures.  I hope we don’t make it to 90.  I said a couple weeks ago I though the 90s were gone, so lets go 89!!!!!!!!!

However, changes move in tonight.  Take a look at the radar below.  Not much yet, but thunderstorms to our north.

A strong cold front rolls in late tonight.

This will give us scattered thunderstorms late tonight and into the morning hours.

By the afternoon, the front stalls in our southern counties with a huge temperature contrast.  80s to the south, 60s to the north with pop-up afternoon storms.

On Friday, the front lifts north and we heat into the 80s once again.  But wait, it drops back south.

Showers and thunderstorms on Saturday with cooler temperatures again.  So a ride over the next several days.

So much happening with the new Heady Pattern.  Remember, we are two weeks into the new pattern but the cycle has been cycling for several months now.  I will extend the long range forecast out through Thanksgiving here in the next few days.  Then I will go out to Christmas here in the next two weeks.  We might as well go into severe weather season in the next month!

Have a great Wednesday!  Long range forecast below.

-Doug

 

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means today’s weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Showers with lower 80s returning for early in the week.  Thunderstorms with our next storm system mid week, this will cool us down for the rest of the week and into the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Tuesday and Wednesday, 3 on Friday.

October 14th-20th:  A cool start, but mild temperatures returning with showers on Tuesday.  Warm temperatures for the second half of the week with thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Tuesday, 2’s on Wednesday and Thursday.

October 21st-27th:  Mainly a mild week with 60s for highs, but a cool finish heading into the weekend.  Showers on Thursday, Friday and Saturday with our next storm system.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Not much of a severe weather chance.

October 28th-November 3rd:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Cooling back down late in the week.  We will have some showers with a storm system on Wednesday and Thursday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Not much of a severe weather chance.

November 4th-10th:  A mild start to the week with a cool finish.  showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, then again for the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Not much of a severe weather chance.

 

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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