Monday Evening February 19th – Still Watching Freezing Rain Chances on the Way

Good Monday evening, everyone. Nick here updating the blog this evening at Doug’s request. As advertised, it was a windy day that kept temperatures in the middle 60s. That’s despite the cloud cover that persisted through the day and the scattered rain and t-storms we’ve seen throughout the day. Not much will change as we go through the evening and night ahead of us. We’ll still keep an eye on developing rain and some t-storms on the radar below…

Plan on the rain chances (even some t-storms) sticking with us as we work through the overnight and into the day on Tuesday…

Most spots will be back ahead of the advancing cold front from the northwest. That will mean another day with highs in the middle 60s. As we start to work into Tuesday afternoon, the cold front will finally start to work through. You can see that below as we work into Tuesday afternoon and evening…

As the colder air filters in, we will see temperatures drop into the lower 30s by the time we get into Tuesday evening. Unfortunately, the cold air is very shallow. That means with warm air still aloft and cold air just near the surface, what starts as rain will hit the ground as some freezing rain late Tuesday night and going into Wednesday morning…

Indications at this point show that this shouldn’t be a big ice storm, but we could see some accumulating ice amounts. For the KS side, let’s say a trace to a tenth of an inch. NE OK and SW MO, we could see some ice amounts push a tenth to two tenths of an inch…

Most of Wednesday actually looks mostly cloudy and dry with temperatures at least going into the middle 30s for afternoon highs. Late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, we’ll have another batch of rain/some freezing rain push in from the southwest. Any additional ice amounts with that look minor at this point…

Once we get past Thursday morning, temperatures will stay above freezing as we work into the coming weekend. That bodes well with more waves bringing just rain chances in here…

Most spots today picked up a quarter to half an inch of rain today. With the additional rounds of rain to come this week, we’ll see another 1.5 inches to as high as 5+ inches of rain before we dry out this coming Sunday…

That being said, we need to keep an eye on the rain chances. It’s rain we need. If we can’t spread the rain chances out evenly, though, we’ll have to keep an eye on some flooding concerns. Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range forecast and latest thoughts on the pattern over at headypattern.com

Have a good night and a great Tuesday!

Nick

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