Good Wednesday evening, everyone. Sure enough, the heat and humidity made their return today. After starting in the upper 60s, we had highs push into the lower 90s. The official high at Joplin Regional today was 92. That was one degree shy of tying the record high of 93 set back in 2011. I hope that’s not a sign of things to come since our summer of 2011 had over 30 days of high temperatures at or above 100. Tonight’s looking okay, but we are watching t-storms off to our north and west on the radar below…
The t-storms are many miles away, but we will have some t-storm chances try to sneak in anytime after we head to work Thursday morning. For the day, in general, we’ll have the chance for scattered t-storms throughout the day…
Even with scattered t-storm chances around, that won’t scrub out the heat and humidity. We’ll have partly sunny skies with the humidity back up there and afternoon highs topping out in the lower 90s once again…
Doug has your long-range forecast covered right below the 7-day.
Here is your 7-day forecast:
Lets check out the Heady Pattern and your long range forecast.
The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long. That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Let me show you our next wave working in.
Look at the Jet Stream in purple, you can see it is well north with a weak wave across northern MO. Lets go back 47-48 days, remember that is the cycle length.
The Jet Stream is in the same place and we still have the weaker wave in the Midwest. Now this was April and the dynamics are a little stronger. So the Midwest wave was stronger than what we can see in the summer months. This time around it will just give us some scattered thunderstorms. Here is your long range forecast.
Check out my long range forecast below all the way through July.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: Staying hot with 90s for highs at the beginning of the week. Some scattered thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. A front should briefly push through on Tuesday backing us into the 80s. The front lifts back north by Thursday with 90s returning and isolated storms. Severe weather index: This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. Lets go 1’s on Sunday, Monday and Wednesday. 2’s on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.
June 17th-23rd: A little cooler with 80s for highs the first half of the week. 90s return for the second half of the week. Isolated thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Thursday. Severe weather index: This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 2’s on Sunday, Monday and Thursday.
June 24th-30th: A hot week with a few thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Severe weather index: This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1’s on Sunday and Monday.
July 1st-7th: Hot all week with pop-up storms each day. Severe weather index: This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1’s through the period.
July 8th-14th: Hot through Wednesday, but warm temperatures return for Thursday through Saturday. A few thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1’s on Wednesday and Thursday.
July 15th-21st: Hot most of the week with thunderstorms chances on Monday and Tuesday, then Friday and Saturday. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 2’s the days with thunderstorms.
July 22nd-28th: Another hot week with pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1’s thunderstorm days.
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