Thursday AM Blog: Thunderstorms, heavy rains, long range forecast


Good Thursday morning!  Wow, what a switch a day makes.  Showers and thunderstorms working in and through the area during the morning hours.   First off, take a look at the radar below.

Lets look at this morning.

By afternoon we will just have a few scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms.

However, look at the front.  It mainly slide south of us.  So temperatures will be much cooler, but our southern counties will be along the front.  So look at the contrast.

However, the front lifts back toward the north tomorrow.

So back to the upper 80s for highs.  However, it doesn’t last long.  It slides right back toward the south on Saturday.

This means temperatures drop again, with some heavy amounts of rain.  In fact, take a look at rainfall potential through the weekend.

You can see a lot of the area is in the 2-3″ range.  So what is next?  Check this out.

This is the upper level map for next weekend.  Look how far south the trough is across the central plains.  This excites me.  We have been in this new pattern now for almost 3 weeks and the cycle length is clear as day for the next year.  I will update you much more over the next few weeks on the winter, spring, summer and next years hurricane season.




Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means today’s weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October:


Next Week:  Showers with lower 80s returning for early in the week.  Thunderstorms with our next storm system mid week, this will cool us down for the rest of the week and into the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Tuesday and Wednesday, 3 on Friday.

October 14th-20th:  A cool start, but mild temperatures returning with showers on Tuesday.  Warm temperatures for the second half of the week with thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Tuesday, 2’s on Wednesday and Thursday.

October 21st-27th:  Mainly a mild week with 60s for highs, but a cool finish heading into the weekend.  Showers on Thursday, Friday and Saturday with our next storm system.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Not much of a severe weather chance.

October 28th-November 3rd:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Cooling back down late in the week.  We will have some showers with a storm system on Wednesday and Thursday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Not much of a severe weather chance.

November 4th-10th:  A mild start to the week with a cool finish.  showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, then again for the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Not much of a severe weather chance.





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