Late Saturday September 29th – Warm End to the Weekend

Good late Saturday evening, everyone. We had another quiet day all across the area. Granted, we started out on a mostly cloudy note with temperatures in the lower to middle 50s this morning. Once we got the sun to peak out behind the clouds, we warmed up nicely with afternoon highs around 80° today. Even though some more cloud cover will be working back in tonight, we’ll keep the radar in our area quiet…

Our Sunday will be almost a repeat of today. We’ll start mostly cloudy and mild and end with a warm afternoon under partly sunny skies. We’ll head into the first days of October on a warm note before we start to keep an eye on rain chances late next week. The updated forecast is right below…

Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range forecast through most of October and his latest thoughts on the pattern right below the 7-Day forecast.

Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

 

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means today’s weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with showers on Sunday, Monday with an upper level wave working through.  Mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week with showers on Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooler for the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  

October 14th-20th:  Mainly a mild week with showers and thunderstorms sunday through Wednesday with two waves working through.  Thunderstorm chances again on Friday.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Sunday, 3 on Tuesday and Friday.

October 21st-27th:  A cool start to the week but mild temps return and stick around through the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Wednesday and Saturday, 3 on Thursday.

Doug

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dheady@koamtv.com

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