Thursday AM Blog: Wow! The temperatures! Some rain chances and the NEW HEADY PATTERN

Good Thursday morning!  I hope your week is going great!  Mine has been pretty good, busy as always but a great week.  I have had a productive week which always makes me happy.  Also, these temperatures I am loving.  I love every single season, and I am ready for Fall.  We are starting the morning into the 40s which feels amazing.  Here is your day planner.

You can see on the radar below, not to much going on.

 

So what is to come?  Well another cold front will work in tomorrow.  This is going to give us clouds and a random shower.  I still think we will go into the mid 70s but a lot of clouds.

The cold front puts the breaks on and will actually lift back toward the north on Saturday.

The front will continue lifting to the north on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  High pressure settles in and the 80s return.  Take a look at next Wednesday night.

A lot is going on here.  The High Pressure is breaking down as our next storm system works in.  Remember, this is the new Heady Pattern which we will be in for the next 12 months.  Look, how the storm systems are diving deep into the SW.  This is completely different and super exciting.  The new cycle has been in place already for a few months which I will release oh in a month or so, I just need to hang onto the number for a bit and not give it away as it is something that for IP needs to stay with me until we get just a little deeper into the fall.  However, I am exciting about this pattern.  I promise it will be much better than the past few years.  Long range forecast is posted below.

-Doug

 

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Back to the 80s for a good chunk of the week.  We will get a storm system working in late in the week.  this will be Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  This will give us some showers and thunderstorms as it works through.  Also, some cooler temperatures heading to the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on  Thursday and Saturday with a 3 on Friday.

October 7th-13th:  A cool start to the week with showers on Sunday, Monday with an upper level wave working through.  Mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week with showers on Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooler for the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  

October 14th-20th:  Mainly a mild week with showers and thunderstorms sunday through Wednesday with two waves working through.  Thunderstorm chances again on Friday.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Sunday, 3 on Tuesday and Friday.

October 21st-27th:  A cool start to the week but mild temps return and stick around through the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Wednesday and Saturday, 3 on Thursday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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