Late Saturday PM September 22nd – Next Week Will Look and Feel Like Fall!

Good late Saturday evening, everyone. I can’t recall the last time a new season arrived on schedule in terms of Mother Nature matching up with the calendar. We kicked off fall at 8:54 this evening and it certainly felt like fall today. After spending most of the week in the lower 90s, the cold front that passed through yesterday lived up to its name. It dropped us to a midnight high of 80 on Friday (we spent most of Friday proper in the lower 70s due to the clouds and rain) to 71 at the Joplin Regional Airport this afternoon. It might turn chilly tonight, but we’ll keep things quiet around here on the radar below…

After a chilly and quiet start to your Sunday, we’re looking good for your Sunday afternoon. Going into the middle of the week, we’ll have our next system work in with additional rain chances and another reinforcing shot of fall air. Your look at the week ahead is right below…

Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range forecast into the end of October right below the 7-day.

Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

 

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cool start ot the week, but most of the week will be nice mild temperatures.  Chances for showers with an  upper level wave rolling in on Friday and Saturday.  This will cool us down a bit for the weekend.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 

October 7th-13th:  A cool start to the week with showers on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with a slow moving upper level wave rolling through.  Mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week with thunderstorms working in on Thursday and Friday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Cooling down and drying out for the weekend. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2 on Thursday.

October 14th-20th:  Mainly a mild week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and We  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Tuesday, 2’s on Monday, Friday and Saturday.

October 21st-27th:  A cool start to the week but mild temps return and stick around through the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Wednesday and Saturday, 3 on Thursday.

Doug

#headypattern

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dheady@koamtv.com

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