Good Wednesday morning. I hope your week is going great so far. Mine has been pretty good so far. We are working on half way through the work week. I have been super busy this week but it has been a good week. So much is going on with the Heady Pattern. The new pattern is now completely set. As I have stated many times before, the cycle has been set for months. I have had the new cycle length now down for a couple of months. I will give you examples here in the next few weeks. I just want others to sweat it out for a bit. However, it will be a much more exciting year. The past pattern well just wasn’t the best for weather lovers. At least over the next 10 months we won’t have to worry about that. Plus, it feels great out. We had a nice cold front roll through on Tuesday evening. It will feel fantastic over the next few days. Check out the radar below.
Most of these showers will be out of here during the morning hours. There is a very slight chance we could see a random shower today, but most to our south.
You can see most of the rain stays south of the area.
Yet another front works in on Friday. It won’t have moisture but will work in.
However, it stalls and pushes back north on Saturday.
The front lifts back north and pops us near 80 for the weekend. Most of the thunderstorms will stay along and north of I-70. These fronts over the next week will tease us and then lift back north. It will eventually move back south late next week cooling us down again. However, I want to show you something else
Look how systems are diving into the SW. This is the same cycle that we have been in for the past two months, but reacting with a new pattern. It is going to get exciting like showtime Mahomes. More to come.
Check out my long range forecast below.
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long. That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now. However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through October:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
October 7th-13th: A cool start to the week with showers on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with a slow moving upper level wave rolling through. Mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week with thunderstorms working in on Thursday and Friday. Some of these could be strong to severe. Cooling down and drying out for the weekend. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 2 on Thursday.
October 14th-20th: Mainly a mild week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and We This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1 on Tuesday, 2’s on Monday, Friday and Saturday.
October 21st-27th: A cool start to the week but mild temps return and stick around through the week. Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 2’s on Wednesday and Saturday, 3 on Thursday.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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