Tuesday AM Blog: Strong to severe storms today, plus your long range forecast.

 

Good Tuesday morning!  I hope your week is going great so far.  I am about to head out the door and start a long trip with many stops in Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and Kansas.  I am going with several members of my family and super excited to get away where highs are in the 60s and 70s.  However, you know me, I can’t leave you guys completely.  I will be checking in and definitely today with a severe threat.  Check out the radar below.

 

We should heat up near 90 with afternoon thunderstorms developing.  Lets look at roughly 3pm.

Scattered storms develop, but increase late afternoon and evening.

Here is a look at mid evening.  Any storms that develop with have the chance of going severe.  Main threat is gusty winds at 70 and 1/4 size hail.  Tornado threat is low but not non-existent.  Lets move to late evening.

They continue into late evening.  I think by midnight they should be out of the area.  Remember your long range forecast is below and I will add to it through September when I get back in town.  I will be gone but still checking in.

Doug

Here is your 7-day forecast:

Lets check out the Heady Pattern and your long range forecast.

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:   Mainly a hot week with thunderstorm chances returning from Tuesday through Saturday.  Just pop-up random storms.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1’s on each day.

July 8th-14th:  Hot through Wednesday, but warm temperatures return for Thursday through Saturday.  A few thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Wednesday and Thursday.

July 15th-21st:  Hot most of the week with thunderstorms chances on Monday and Tuesday, then Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s the days with thunderstorms.

July 22nd-28th:  Another hot week with pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s thunderstorm days.

July 29th-August 5th:  Mainly a hot week with highs in the 90s or 100s.  Slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday the 5th.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1 on Saturday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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