Wednesday AM blog: Next storm system, and what is to come in October

Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great!  Mine has been pretty good.  I would like to get a ton done around the house before work.  We will see how that goes.  Ok weather, what is going on?  Absolutely nothing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I am highly bored and need some weather action.  I know most of you like the calm weather, but I enjoy having something to talk about.  So lets dig into the pattern.  First off, today.

Another hot and humid day for us today.

Changes coming Thursday night with our next cold front.  This will give us scattered showers and thunderstorms into Friday morning

As the front slips south over the weekend, most of the moisture will be south of us, but still close enough for a few random scattered showers.  Here is a look at Saturday.

This will briefly cool us down, but we will start to warm up early next week.  However, a stronger cold front will work in by mid week.

So lets dig just a bit, you know more is coming.  I can only give so much out of course.  The new pattern will be 100% set here in one week.  This new pattern will last for the next year.  We have a recurring cycle in that pattern.  Now the cycle has been now COMPLETELY set for a couple months.  That is why we have had the drastic change in August and September.  This year is a longer cycle than what we had last year with the 47 day cycle.  I promise, it will be a great pattern for weather lovers.   I am super excited, that is all I can say for now, but more to come.  Long range forecast below.

-Doug

 

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Scattered thunderstorms through the first half of the week with a bigger cold front working through late Tuesday into Wednesday.  This will keep us cooler the rest of the week but warming toward the weekend.    This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2 on Tuesday, 1 on Wednesday.

September 30th-October 6th:  A warm start to the week with much cooler temperatures working in by mid week and staying mild the rest of the week.  Thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.     This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on thunderstorm days.

October 7th-13th:  A cool start to the week with showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures back in on Wednesday and Thursday with cooler temperatures again for the weekend.  Also rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Friday, 2 on Monday, 3 on Sunday and a 4 on Thursday.

October 14th-20th:  Mainly a mild week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday and then again on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Tuesday, 2’s on Monday, Friday and Saturday.

October 21st-27th:  A cool start to the week but mild temps return and stick around through the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Wednesday and Saturday, 3 on Thursday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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