Late Saturday November 17th – Starting a New Week Out on a Cold & Raw Note

Good late Saturday evening, everyone.  Today turned out to be pretty good with temperatures near or above normal. That all depended on how fast our cold front pushed through the area. If it was late to bring in the cooler north breeze, we had highs pushing well into the 60s this afternoon. If you had that north breeze throughout the day, it was a bit chilly with highs in the 50s. Despite that, we kept things quiet with only increasing clouds late this afternoon and into the evening. We’re starting the overnight quiet with any big rain or snow up to our north on the radar…

The week ahead is looking okay, overall. We just need to put up with a weak wave for your Sunday and another system as we work into the upcoming holiday weekend. Your look at the week ahead is right below…

Don’t forget that Doug has his long-range forecast based on his pattern out into late January below the 7 day forecast.

Have a good night and a great Sunday!


Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means today’s weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through December:


Next Week:  A cool start to the week.  We need to watch the system on Sunday with rain and snow chances.  Mild temperatures return into the middle of the week.  We will have slight chances for rain on Thanksgiving, but really it looks decent into the weekend.

November 25th-December 1st:  Stronger system rolls in on Sunday with rain or snow chances.  Cold through the middle of the week with slight chances for rain on Tuesday.  Mild temperatures with rain on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  If we can get some colder air, maybe rain snow mix or snow on Saturday.

December 2nd-8th:  Cold with rain or snow on Sunday.  Staying cold through the first half of the week with snow chances on Tuesday.  Mild temperatures will try to work back in late in the week with rain or snow chances with a weak system on Thursday and Friday.

December 9th-15th:  Mainly a cold week with rain or snow chances with a weak system on Tuesday.  The rest of the week will be mainly dry.

December 16th-22nd:  A mild start, but turning sharply colder early in the week.  Rain and snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  This is a fairly strong system so needs to be watched.  Cold the rest of the week until the weekend with mild temperatures returning.

December 23rd-29th:  Cold with rain or snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  This will be a stronger system and LET ME POINT OUT MONDAY IS CHRISTMAS EVE.  Staying cold with rain and snow chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

December 30th-January 5th:  Another cold week with snow chances with a weak system on Monday and Tuesday.  A much stronger systems rolls in with snow on Friday.

January 6th-12th:  A cold start to the week but mild temps return for the second half of the week.  Rain or snow chances on Wednesday with a weak system.

January 13th-19th:  Mainly a mild week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday, then again on Wednesday.

January 20th-26th:  A mild start but turning colder again by mid week.  A series of big systems rolling through with rain, ice and snow on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Another chance for snow on Friday.




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