Tuesday Night Blog: A few storms, heat and long range forecast

Good Tuesday night!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been good, but boy am I dragging today.  I was up until 6 am this morning with the storms that plowed through early Tuesday morning.  Tonight will be much calmer, but still some scattered showers and thunderstorms could pop up.  Take a look at the radar below.

A few random isolated storms late tonight.  We will warm up, partly sunny skies with a few isolated storms again during the afternoon.

The 90s should return the rest of the week.  Our strong high pressure that has been on us for over a month increases again.

With this huge HIGH, it blocks up the systems out west.  They still rotate in right on schedule with the Heady Pattern.  However, the rotate over the high instead of through the area.  We can get isolated storms, but we can’t get big organized storms systems.  Lets go back one cycle to the end of April, this is when in a sense it felt like summer began.

Going back one complete cycle, which is about 47.5 days, you can see not much changes.  This is why we have been hot and humid since and the next cycle will be more of the same.  We do have little spells of better rain chances and temperatures into the 80s.  Lets go to next Thursday.

We still have the big HIGH in charge, but it will shift west just a bit for a few days.  This will allow us to have 80s for highs and little better rain chances next week.  We are going to start to see some changes here in about 6 weeks.  The new Heady Pattern will start taking shape.  I will keep you updated on all of this.  MAKE SURE YOU CHECK OUT THE LONG RANGE FORECAST BELOW.

Doug

 

Here is your 7-day forecast:

Lets check out the Heady Pattern and your long range forecast.

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:   A warm start to the week with hot temperatures returning for the weekend.  When I say warm, I am talking about 80s.  Thunderstorm chances increasing through the first half of the week.  Warm temperatures stick around through the week.  Severe weather index:  1’s on Sunday and Monday, 2’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

June 24th-30th:  A few scattered thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  The rest of the week should be dry.  A warm start to the week with hot temperatures returning the second half of the week.  Severe weather index:  1’s on Sunday and Tuesday, a 2 on Monday

July 1st-7th:  Hot all week with pop-up storms each day.  Severe weather index:  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s through the period.

July 8th-14th:  Hot through Wednesday, but warm temperatures return for Thursday through Saturday.  A few thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Wednesday and Thursday.

July 15th-21st:  Hot most of the week with thunderstorms chances on Monday and Tuesday, then Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s the days with thunderstorms.

July 22nd-28th:  Another hot week with pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s thunderstorm days.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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