Late Saturday PM September 1st – T-Storm Chances Lining Up for Next Week

Good Saturday evening, everyone. We had a pretty quiet day overall across the area. Everyone started on a nice note this morning with mostly sunny skies before we saw some more cloud cover pass by this afternoon. There may have been a shower or two around Table Rock Lake, but those didn’t last very long. For the afternoon, we had everyone top out around 90° before we started cooling down this evening. We still have t-storms on the radar below, but they are all staying away from us for tonight and going into Sunday morning…

Starting Sunday afternoon and taking us through the coming week, incoming Gulf moisture will result in t-storm chances working back in. Will they be an issue for Labor Day? I have the updated forecast right below…

Don’t forget that Doug has his latest thoughts on the pattern just below and his long-range forecast below the 7-day.

Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

Doug’s Update on the Pattern:

Remember, the pattern is still morphing from the old into the new.  The new pattern will be completely set in about a month.  However, the new cycle is already set and thankfully I have that part already down.  The pattern morphing and the new cycle is why we have had more rain and cooler temperatures over the past month.  Remember, my long range forecast is below.

-Doug

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through September

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mainly a warm/hot week with highs near 90 degrees.  Thunderstorm chances will return for just about each and every day with the tropical moisture.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s thunderstorm days.

September 9th- 16th:  Mainly a warm week with highs in the 80s.  Hit and miss storms Tuesday through Friday.  Behind this system we will cool back down into the 70s for highs heading into the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s each day.

September 17th-22nd:  Most of the week will be mild with 70s for highs.  We will briefly warm up during the middle of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Chances stick around on Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Wednesday and Thursday, 1 on Saturday.

September 23rd-29th:  A mild first half of the week with 60s and 70s, but 80s return the second half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday, then again by Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Sunday and Monday, also Saturday.

Doug

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dheady@koamtv.com

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