Thursday Morning Blog: Storms, heat, holiday, hurricanes and long range forecast

 

Good Thursday morning.  I hope your week is going great!  Mine has been pretty good.  I got a ton done on Wednesday which was great.  If you didn’t know I got a knew mustang a couple weeks ago so I spent yesterday making the exhaust much louder.  I don’t know why guys who love sports cars do this.  I think it makes us feel like a car is amazing, lol.  Well I love it!  Well it is Thursday!  Big night tonight with all kind of locate college football games.  Also the Chiefs play, even though this is the scrubs tonight but still have to watch.

So lets talk weather.  Scattered thunderstorms this morning.  Here is a look at mid morning.

As this warm front lifts through, we will have scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Also, the front will bring the heat and humidity for the weekend.  By early afternoon, storms will shift off to the east but the front continues to push north.

Most of the storms will be north of I-44, but I think most of us will average 1/4-1/2″ of rain with the heavier storms.  By afternoon, partly sunny and we heat into the upper 80s.  Remember, these will be very scattered but the areas that get rain will get good amounts.  Another batch will form late tonight and Friday morning.  Most of this will be KC and east.  However, some could clip SW MO by Friday morning.

By Friday afternoon the heat and humidity really kick in.

Take a look at the latest below with the radar for current conditions.

The holiday weekend will be hot with highs into the 90s.  We will start to see tropical moisture working in on Sunday and Monday with some scattered storms.  We will actually have pop-up storms most of next week due to this.  Take a look at mid next week.

Look at the possible tropical system in the Gulf.  With the upper level high, moisture will rotate north and give us pop-up afternoon storms most of the week.  Now, if we can at least get a tropical low (which looks very likely) this is a huge hit on long range forecasting.  I put out a forecast in March with this system developing on the 1st of September and making some type of landfall from the 4th-6th which you can find on past blogs from that time.  So personally I want a tropical low, obviously nothing destructive or that could cause issues, but in a forecasting sense, I would like to see what develops.  Another long range model is picking up on this as well.

If your wondering how this fits in the Heady Pattern, lets go back to late May with tropical storm Alberto.

Lets go all the way back to last October with Hurricane Nate.

So lets watch and see if a tropical low can develop.  Remember, the new cycle is set and has been set for two months now.  The new pattern will be set in 3 weeks.  This is an exciting time with figuring out what will come over the next 12 months.  Much more to come.  Long range forecast below.

-Doug

Doug’s Update on the Pattern:

Remember, the pattern is still morphing from the old into the new.  The new pattern will be completely set in about a month.  However, the new cycle is already set and thankfully I have that part already down.  The pattern morphing and the new cycle is why we have had more rain and cooler temperatures over the past month.  Remember, my long range forecast is below.

-Doug

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through September

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mainly a warm/hot week with highs near 90 degrees.  Thunderstorm chances will return for just about each and every day with the tropical moisture.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s thunderstorm days.

September 9th- 16th:  Mainly a warm week with highs in the 80s.  Hit and miss storms Tuesday through Friday.  Behind this system we will cool back down into the 70s for highs heading into the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s each day.

September 17th-22nd:  Most of the week will be mild with 70s for highs.  We will briefly warm up during the middle of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Chances stick around on Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Wednesday and Thursday, 1 on Saturday.

September 23rd-29th:  A mild first half of the week with 60s and 70s, but 80s return the second half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday, then again by Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Sunday and Monday, also Saturday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

Remember that you can sign up for WeatherCall by clicking the WeatherCall link at the top of the page. WeatherCall, in our opinion, is the best tool on the market to keep you safe during severe weather.

Also, we have our free WEATHER APP that lets you access our forecast, blog, radar and weather alerts. We think it’s a must if you own an Apple or Android phone.

Posted in Blog | Leave a comment