Tuesday AM Blog: Warmer temperatures, long range forecast

Good Tuesday morning!  I hope your week is starting off great so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  It is early in the week, but going well.  We thankfully got anywhere from 1/4″-4″ of rain across the area.  The heaviest by far in our southern counties.  But we are still very far behind for the year.  The good news in the long term is we will catch up over the next year.  Today looks pretty good.  There is a very slight chance for a pop-up shower, but most of you will stay dry.

You can see most of the rain has pushed off to the east.

We will continue to warm up over the next few days.

We will continue to warm back up as High Pressure takes charge over the next week.  I will get deep into the changes this week.

Long range forecast below.

Doug

 

 

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Heating up through the beginning of the week. Staying hot most of the week with thunderstorms chances by the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Lets go 1’s each day.

August 19th-25th:  A hot first half of the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  A few pop-up storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 26th-September 1st:  A hot week with pop-up storms on Sunday, Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on the thundestorm days.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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