Late Saturday July 28th Update – Some More Rain/T-Storms Lining Up

Good late Saturday evening, everyone. We had a nice start to our Saturday before we had that good scattering of strong to severe t-storms work across parts of the area. Not a lot of severe weather materialized from that, but it did allow temperatures to cool off a bit after we hit the upper 80s and lower 90s today. We may be starting the late night on a quiet note, but look at the radar below…

Any and all t-storms out west that can hold together will work in starting early Sunday morning. That’s just one round of a few more rounds of rain I’m tracking as we get a new week underway. The updated forecast is right below…

Don’t forget that your 7-Day forecast is below Doug’s latest thoughts on the pattern. Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

 

I have talked about the new pattern and the new cycle that is already in place with the Heady Pattern.  We are going to take a weekend break and hit it hard again on Monday.  I want to research the new pattern and cycle as we are into the weekend as it draws me in just like a gamer which I have never been but I am a complete weather nerd, however a cool one, I suppose lol.  Take a look at the upper level map below from next Tuesday.

You can see the upper level low just east of us which fit our current Heady Pattern and also the new HP (Heady Pattern).  This is all part of the new cycle forming.  So we will have cooler temperatures next week behind this system with showers on Monday.  However, the heat will return by next weekend.

So lets dig into the Heady Pattern.  Remember, the HP (Heady Pattern) sets up each and every fall around the 3rd week of September.  The pattern is how storm systems will react for the next year.  Now in the pattern, we have a recurring cycle.  The cycle can and does range each and every year.  Each years pattern is unique, just like all of us.  Now the cycle can start as early as May and as late as mid August.  I have a very specific way of figuring this out which I have been fine-tuning over the past 5 years.  I am very excited about this upcoming cycle.  The cycle started decently early this year and I have a special model/algorithm to figure this out.  I will have this years cycle length nailed down in no longer than two weeks which I am pretty pumped about.  So what does this mean?  August will have hot stretches but it WON’T be like what we have had since the beginning of May.  I will have a lot more on this over the next several blogs. 

Long range forecast below.

Doug

Here is your 7-day forecast:

 

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A nice warm week with temperatures mainly in the 80s.  We will have showers on Sunday and Monday, then the rest of the week mainly dry.  However, 90s will return late in the week.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Sunday.

August 12th-18th:  Up and down temperatures through the week with 80s and 90s through the week.  Thunderstorm chances just about each day of the week.This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Lets go 1’s each day.

August 19th-25th:  A hot first half of the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  A few pop-up storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 26th-September 1st:  A hot week with pop-up storms on Sunday, Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on the thundestorm days.

Doug

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dheady@koamtv.com

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