Wednesday AM Blog: Why have we been cooler?

I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been fantastic, just a little on the busy side.  However, the temperatures have been much better with lower humidity.  Today will be hot, but still I don’t expect the humidity to be very high.

I am thinking our heat index will be around 97 or so.  We will have thunderstorm chances back in the forecast.  Take a look at the radar below, we are good for today.

However, thunderstorm chances will increase over the next few days.  Thunderstorms will get close tonight and a few could make it in later tonight.  Here is a look at late tonight.

Our front will push in during the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will stick around.

The front will sag south giving us great temperatures into the mid 80s on Friday.  However, it lifts back in on Saturday and Sunday upping our thunderstorm chances again.

We will warm up a bit as the front surges north, but this will also give us scattered thunderstorms through the weekend.  So why are we cooler now if we are in the same pattern and the new pattern doesn’t start for 2 more months?  Well let me explain.

See how the High has shifted west, we have the upper level low over us giving us cooler temps.  Well lets go back two cycles to the end of April when really summer started.

You can see the same pattern, but everything is now shifted slightly farther west. Why?  Then new cycle has begun.  We had 7 cycles of the last pattern, but we are working through the current first cycle of the new pattern.  This cycle will be a little longer than what we have been in.  However, August will still have it’s hot stretches but nothing like we have been seeing all summer, this is the good news. I will have so much more on this.  But just know the changes with the new pattern are in place.

Doug

Long range forecast is below.

Here is your 7-day forecast:

 

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cooler start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Thunderstorms and hotter temperatures return late in the week. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Sunday, Friday and Saturday.

August 12th-18th:  Up and down temperatures through the week with 80s and 90s through the week.  Thunderstorm chances just about each day of the week.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Lets go 1’s each day.

August 19th-25th:  A hot first half of the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  A few pop-up storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 26th-September 1st:  A hot week with pop-up storms on Sunday, Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on the thundestorm days.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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