Late Sunday October 14th – Brighter Start to the Work/School Week & Our First Frost on the Horizon

Good late Sunday evening, everyone. Our cloudy and wet weekend has come and gone. Before our cold front brought the drizzle and rain back in for the afternoon and evening, we did manage to hit the upper 50s for afternoon highs today. Now, it’s all about the dropping thermometer behind the front. While it will be cold tonight, the rain chances are clearing out and any snow on the radar below is staying outside of our area…

Monday may start off mostly cloudy, but the skies will brighten up throughout the day. With a gusty north wind behind the front, though, it will stay cool for Monday afternoon. Once we get past our first frost/freeze Monday night, we’ll have temperatures moderate before rain chances try to sneak back in late in the week. Your look at the rest of the week ahead is right below…

Don’t forget Doug has his long range forecast going into December right below the 7 Day forecast.

Have a good night and a great Monday!

Nick

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means today’s weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through December:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday and then again for the weekend.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Tuesday, 2 on Saturday.

October 28th-November 3rd:  Mild with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Briefly cooling down on Monday, back to mild temps for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Showers with our next wave on Tuesday and Wednesday with cool temperatures working in for the rest of the week.  Cold with a few showers again for the weekend.  Halloween:  Mild with a few showers.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2 on Sunday, 1 on Tuesday.

November 4th-10th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning by the middle of the week.  Showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday, then cooler again for the late week and the weekend.  Election Tuesday:  Mild and looks dry.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Not much of a severe weather chance.

November 11th-17th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week.  Showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday with much cooler temperatures working in.  Some snow could be close or mixed in on Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Lets go a 2 on Thursday.

November 18th-24th:  Mainly a cool week with showers on Monday and Tuesday.  The rest of the week looks dry including Thanksgiving and Black Friday.  It will be on the cold side. 

November 25th-December 1st:  A mild start to the week with showers on Monday.  Rain back in on Wednesday and cooling down the rest of the week.  Rain or snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

December 2nd-8th:  Back to mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  It could change or mix with snow on Wednesday.  Cold the rest of the wee with rain or snow chances for the weekend.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

Remember that you can sign up for WeatherCall by clicking the WeatherCall link at the top of the page. WeatherCall, in our opinion, is the best tool on the market to keep you safe during severe weather.

Also, we have our free WEATHER APP that lets you access our forecast, blog, radar and weather alerts. We think it’s a must if you own an Apple or Android phone.

Posted in Blog | Leave a comment