Thursday 7/19/18 Blog: Extreme heat, changes! The HP (Heady Pattern)

Good Thursday morning!  This is going to be fairly short and brief as for some reason I can never catch up with the 2,102.555567 things I need to do in a day.  I hope your week is going great!  Mine has really been pretty good.  I am still fighting the migraines, even with the new medication, I am frustrated but fighting through them.  So I just continue to keep myself busy and work and do stuff around the house.  However, I got my electric bill and I stared at if for about 3 minutes thinking, is this right?  Then it hit me, the summer has been a little on the hot side.  Hmm, I am cheap and hate the electric bill.  So, what am I going to do about it, I am going to provide today, which at least will challenge for the hottest day this summer.  So lets dive into it.  Check out today.

I think most of us will be around 100 today, actual temperature.  Now you factor in the awful humidity, that means the heat index will be around 110-113 this afternoon.  That well stinks!  So be careful, and watch the pets.  Jack, my getting old very quickly German Shepherd hates the heat.  I always put ice in his water bowl before I head to work.  Ok, so what about rain?  Well our NE counties could see a random storm this morning, but most of us will be dry for a most of the day.  Take a look at the current radar below.

Believe it or not, but a cold front approaches the area this afternoon.  Ahead of it, we will have some isolated (that means once again hit and miss) storms across the area.  I am going to say 25-35% of us see rain, which isn’t enough.

The good news is cooler air slowly sinks south for the weekend into next week.  This is right on track and what should happen with the HP.  So for the weekend, highs near 90, and most of next week we are looking at mid to upper 80s.  Ok, yes, that is still hot, but WAY better than what we have been having.  So what about the pattern.  Most of you know that keep up with my blog and posts, I have had a side business for several  years with long range forecasting and I am currently greatly expanding this.  The main things I focus on is regional forecast for certain companies and tropical or hurricane forecast.  I work daily on research and find out more and more as I continue to develop the Heady Pattern.  The biggest thing I have been working on lately is tropical forecast.  Remember the new pattern will set up the third week of September.  Now, when I say pattern, that is how storm systems react.  So from that point, we will be in the same pattern until September of 2019.  However, there is a recurring cycle (the length between the same storms repeating) that sets up way earlier each year.  Now, it is different each year.  Some years the cycle sets up in April or May, others may be August.  This current cycle set up last August.  I don’t want to go into the boring details on what makes it set up when, but let me say the new cycle is already set.  However, I developed, with great help form a mathematician, a model or algorithm to help me find the cycle very early.  This is SO important and very ground breaking and super exciting as this is something that hasn’t been discovered.  So I also want to protect it, I am sure you all understand that.  However, it helps me forecast tropical events not only 6 months or 9 months in advance, but I have found away to tell even a couple years in advance give or take 10 days.  Yes 10 days sounds like a long time, but a couple years in advance where they will develop is huge, so I am super excited.  Okay, I will continue to keep you updated on all the changes.  Check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

Here is your 7-day forecast:

Remember, my long range forecast is below.  Have a great and safe weekend.

-Doug

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Temperatures not as bad, yes still hot but not 95-100 degrees.  We are mainly talking mid to upper 80s to near 90 degrees.  We will have thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1’s on thunderstorm days.

July 29th-August 4th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  The heat, the humidity really return the second half of the week leading into August.  Also, mainly dry this week.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Sunday.

August 5th-11th:  A hot start to the week, but warm temperatures (Mainly 80s) work in Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  The heat returns to end the week.  We will have the hit and miss storms just about each and every day.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Just 1’s on the severe weather chart.

August 12th-18th:  The heat and humidity return with highs into the 90s if not 100s through the week.  Mainly a dry week.This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  

August 19th-25th:  A hot first half of the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  A few pop-up storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 26th-September 1st:  A hot week with pop-up storms on Sunday, Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on the thundestorm days.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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