Tuesday AM Blog: More heat, little rain, but the Heady Pattern is CHANGING!

Good Tuesday morning!  I hope your start of the week has been great!  I am back in the swing of things after my long family road trip.  I did a ton of research on the HP (Heady Pattern) Monday evening and wow the changes still amaze me every year we work into July and August.  I can start to see the signs of the next pattern setting up that will tell exactly what we are going to have for the fall, winter, spring and next summer.  Plus, very interesting signs with tropics.  Obviously we don’t get tropical storms here, but being able to see where they will develop and places they will affect absolutely amazes me.  Okay, guys and girls, we need rain.  Check out these stats.

This year:  Just shy of 17″ of rain

Average: 25″

Last year at this time:  32″

We have had half the amount of rain and my yard can tell.  I was mowing on Sunday and it was like I walked through a dust storm when I got done.  We will have some isolated afternoon storms like we did on Monday.  These will be small and very hit and miss.  Hot with a heat index around 102 degrees, ugh.

Not much on the radar right now, but will watch it through the day.

So many exciting things are going on with the pattern.  Remember, the new pattern will set up by the 3rd week of September.  This isn’t something that just occurs, it is a morphing over a couple of months.  Also the recurring cycle ALWAYS sets up prior to the pattern.  I am working on this right now.  It was an interesting Monday when I was researching the tropical storm aspect.  I have always thought I was around 70% accurate on tropical storm long range forecasting but I haven’t been able to find away to close that 30% gap.  I found that piece on Monday night.  I have had a private side business for a while now forecasting long range for individual farmers in the central plains.  I am currently expanding this with my business partner (also a meteorologist that has been my mentor since I was 8 years old) to all different types of companies but especially with hurricane forecasting, so I am super excited.  So I am putting that into action now and want to see how it adjusts the forecasts.  Make sure you check out my long range forecast below out through Labor Day.

Doug

 

Here is your 7-day forecast:

Let’s check out the Heady Pattern and your long range forecast.

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A hot start to the week with scattered thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Briefly cooler, well 80s for highs for the middle of the week.  The heat returns toward the weekend with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Monday and Tuesday.  Then again on Friday and Saturday.

July 22nd-28th:  Mainly a hot week with highs well into the 90s if not triple digits.  We will have a few afternoon pop-up storms with little severe threat on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s thunderstorm days.

July 29th-August 5th:  Mainly a hot week with highs in the 90s or 100s.  Slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday the 5th.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1 on Saturday.

August 6th-11th:  A hot start to the week with a storms system with scattered storms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  This will bring the 80s back in through the middle of the week and really sticking around into the weekend.  Slight chances for at least random pop-up storms each day.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Sunday and Monday.

August 12th-18th:  The heat and humidity return with highs into the 90s if not 100s through the week.  Mainly a dry week

August 19th-25th:  A hot first half of the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  A few pop-up storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 26th-September 1st:  A hot week with pop-up storms on Sunday, Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on the thundestorm days.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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